BTC USD Bounces Off $76,500 After the $6.36 Billion Binance Hack While Retail Traders Pile Into Longs: Is the Bottom In, or Is This the Bybit Pattern Again?

Following the largest crypto theft on record—in which hackers drained roughly $6.36 billion from Binance—Bitcoin (BTC USD) dropped to $76,500 early Friday, October 30. Market participants remain deeply divided on whether this marked the market bottom.

The subsequent recovery has been weak. Bitcoin currently changes hands at $77,800, representing a 24-hour decline of 3% and a 7-day drop of 4.8%. Simultaneously, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index plummeted from 51 to 30 within a single day. The local low hit almost precisely on the 200-day moving average, a technical threshold Bitcoin has successfully closed above daily since its August breakout.

This raises key questions: Who is currently buying the dip, what do historical exchange hacks indicate about potential market bottoms, and which technical levels will dictate the next move?

If Binance returns assets in-kind like previous large exchange hacks (Bybit) this is a list of what altcoins Binance would receive the largest buybacks https://t.co/xO2FceWV0p

— Luke Martin (@VentureCoinist) October 30, 2026

What Are Traders Doing After the Binance Hack?

Retail participants are actively leveraging up to buy the dip, whereas larger market participants are hedging their positions and U.S.-based buyers remain on the sidelines. Data from OKX, Deribit, and Coinbase highlights several distinct trends:

• An increase in long accounts: On OKX, the ratio of accounts holding long positions versus shorts on Bitcoin climbed from 1.80 at 19:00 UTC on Thursday (an hour prior to the hack) to 2.72 by 03:00 on Friday, before easing back to 2.25.
• Rising open interest during the decline: OKX’s Bitcoin futures open interest—representing the total value of active contracts—grew by 9%, moving from $3.42 billion to $3.73 billion as prices fell, indicating that traders were opening new positions rather than closing existing ones.
• Persistent positive funding rates: The fee paid by long positions to shorts on OKX remained in positive territory throughout the crash, registering 0.01% at midnight and 0.0055% at 08:00 UTC. Typically, a genuine market flush pushes funding rates negative.
• Options traders seeking protection: On Deribit, trading activity over a 24-hour period recorded 30,846 BTC worth of puts compared to 18,912 BTC of calls, yielding a put-to-call ratio of 1.63. The platform’s implied-volatility index spiked from 36.2 to 39.6 before settling back at 37.5.
• Hesitant U.S. demand: Overnight trading for Bitcoin on Coinbase traded up to $218 lower than Binance—double the pre-hack gap—signaling a lack of participation from American buyers.

Spot ETF inflows have yet to provide a definitive signal. U.S. spot Bitcoin funds pulled in $17.2 million on Thursday, but trading had already concluded before the initial Binance wallet drain at 20:05 UTC. Consequently, Friday’s inflow figures will serve as the first reliable gauge.

This combination presents a challenge for anyone attempting to call a bottom. While liquidations totaled approximately $1.55 billion, leverage has rebounded past its pre-crash levels, meaning dip-buying longs could serve as fuel for another sell-off if the $76,500 threshold fails to hold.

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Is the Bottom In for BTC USD?

Historical precedent suggests a bottom may not be in place yet. Across four out of the last six major exchange exploits, Bitcoin registered a deeper low 11 to 24 days afterward, falling between 14.6% and 46.3% below its closing price on the eve of the hack.

The closest historical parallel is the Bybit exploit, which previously held the record at $1.5 billion and was attributed by TRM Labs to the same North Korean group linked to the recent Binance incident. Bitcoin closed at $98,305 on February 21, 2025, the day before the Bybit hack, before ultimately reaching a bottom of $76,606 on March 11—18 days and 22.1% lower.

Conversely, an exception occurred during Binance’s own security breach in May 2019, when 7,000 BTC was stolen; the market bottom was established on the exact day of the event, and Bitcoin gained 35% one week later. Similarly, the 2020 KuCoin exploit caused minimal disruption to prices.

These major pullbacks are rarely driven by a single catalyst. The 2025 slide coincided with tariff threats from Donald Trump, while the August 2024 trough coincided with a wider global market sell-off. While the hack itself is rarely the entire story, it typically impacts a market that is already in a fragile state—much like the current environment.

Direct supply risks also remain present. According to TRM Labs, the attacker still controls the 18,270 BTC extracted from Binance (valued at approximately $1.42 billion at current prices) and has begun breaking the funds down into increments of 1,000 BTC and 100 BTC. These coins are anticipated to transit through bridges, swap services, and over-the-counter (OTC) brokers, maintaining significant sell pressure over the market.

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BTC USD Price Analysis: Can Bitcoin Hold the 200-Day EMA?

The initial test of support was successful. Friday’s low of $76,500 on Binance materialized just $30 above the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) of $76,470, prompting buyers to step in. BTC USD now trades in the range between that key metric and the 50-day EMA at $80,600, a level lost during Thursday’s session.

The three-month chart underscores the importance of the $76,500 level. Throughout late August and early September, Bitcoin fluctuated between $74,968 and $82,300 before staging a breakout to $87,396 on September 21. The latest hack has forced the asset back into the lower half of that established range.

• Resistance: Positioned at $80,600 (the 50-day EMA), followed by $81,971 (Thursday’s high prior to the hack), and further up at $84,898 (the October 21 high).
• Support: Located at $76,500 (Friday’s low at the 200-day EMA), with subsequent support at $74,968 (the September 15 low, serving as the floor of the late-summer range).

Establishing a definitive bottom requires leveraged long positions to exit the market first, yet retail traders have continued to add exposure. For BTC USD, crucial indicators to monitor include whether Binance withdrawals resume by Sunday, Friday’s ETF flow data, and a return of the OKX long-short ratio toward 1.8. In the absence of these developments, a daily close above $80,600 serves as a minimum prerequisite before declaring a market low.

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