J.P. Morgan Projects 10% a Year for Bitcoin: The Bank’s Own Bear Case Points to $25,000

In its 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions released on Monday, October 19, J.P. Morgan Asset Management projected an annual return of 10% for Bitcoin over the coming decade. This marks the first time that the 31-year-old report has included a specific target for BTC USD. While Michael Saylor interpreted the move as Wall Street doing the math, the publication’s text functions much like a warning label.

J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s base case projects Bitcoin to outperform U.S. stocks, bonds and gold over the next decade. Wall Street is doing the math. pic.twitter.com/xGnbwYcVjN

— Michael Saylor (@saylor) October 20, 2026

Bitcoin currently trades at $83,025, marking a 1.99% gain over 24 hours, coinciding with a second consecutive day of inflows for spot Bitcoin ETFs and $90.38 million in BTC transfers to freshly created wallets as flagged by Lookonchain. This raises the question of whether a 10% annual return projection serves as a bullish indicator or a prompt for careful position sizing.

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BTC Is at the Top of Its Return Table.: What Does J.P. Morgan Actually Project for Bitcoin?

J.P. Morgan’s Bitcoin forecast establishes a base case compound annual return of 10% over 10 years, which represents the highest projection in its table. This figure outpaces U.S. REITs at 8.2%, U.S. large caps at 7.5%, U.S. aggregate bonds at 5.6%, gold at 5.5%, and cash at 3.2%.

Additionally, the report outlines a bull case scenario of 16.6% per year alongside a bear case of -11.2%, calculated from an initial spot price of $83,000 on September 30. Projecting these figures forward yields the following outcomes:

• Base case: approximately $215,000 per BTC by 2036.
• Bull case: approximately $386,000.
• Bear case: approximately $25,000.

This wide range stems from an anticipated annual volatility of 55%, which is more than three times gold’s volatility rate of 17.2%. This variance also accounts for why the arithmetic average return of 20.9% sits significantly higher than the 10% rate investors actually experience through compounding.

The report’s authors offer blunt assessments elsewhere in the document, describing Bitcoin as “a speculative asset and a hedge against monetary easing,” noting that it is “premature to create a 10-year forecast for bitcoin,” and omitting it from their primary portfolio models due to shifting asset correlations. Furthermore, among their three evaluation frameworks, the model based on network adoption yields a base case of -3.2% annually.

In essence, J.P. Morgan placed Bitcoin at the highest position on its return chart while simultaneously advising clients against building a portfolio around it at this stage.

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Who Is Buying BTC USD Right Now?

Purchasing activity is coming from BlackRock clients and participants operating via Wintermute. Data from SoSoValue indicates that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $23.2 million on Tuesday—with BlackRock’s IBIT fund contributing $29.9 million—following a $526.6 million inflow on Monday. Overall, the category remains down by approximately $67 million for the month of October.

Whales continue to accumulate $BTC!

Another 3 newly created wallets received 1,090 $BTC ($90.38M) from Wintermute.https://t.co/TwNMdG7jgZhttps://t.co/GO3INdWCpphttps://t.co/3qqMDA5a7Mhttps://t.co/S25zuSxmzk pic.twitter.com/7rpwosaFDxx

— Lookonchain (@lookonchain) October 21, 2026

A larger volume of activity originated from on-chain Bitcoin whales. Lookonchain identified three newly established wallets that received 1,090 BTC, valued at $90.38 million, from market maker Wintermute early Wednesday morning. New wallets funded by a market maker frequently suggest an over-the-counter (OTC) buyer taking delivery, though the specific identity of the buyer remains undisclosed by the wallet addresses.

EXPLORE: BTC USD ETF Rebound Was Led Almost Entirely by BlackRock’s IBIT Fund

Whales Are Accumulating But Can BTC USD Hold $83,000 This Time?

Although the price of BTC USD has crossed the $83,000 threshold, the primary challenge remains successfully closing a daily candle above that mark. Bitcoin has not registered a daily close above that swing high since October 12, despite intraday wicks reaching $83,168 on October 18 and $83,249 today.

Key technical levels on the daily chart include:

• The line to beat: today’s $83,249 high.
• The next target: $87,220, representing the previous major swing high.
• The initial floor: $82,563, positioned as a swing low just below the current price.
• The primary floor: $80,394 to $80,765, where a swing low converges with the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA).

Within a bullish scenario, a daily close above $83,249 accompanied by sustained ETF inflows would clear a path toward $87,220. In the base case, BTC USD is expected to range-bound between $80,394 and $83,249 ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for next week. Under a bearish outcome, a breakdown below $80,394 would bring the 200-day EMA at $76,108 into focus.

J.P. Morgan’s base case requires Bitcoin to achieve a 10% compound annual growth rate from its current position, but in the immediate term, the asset must secure a daily close above $83,249 first.

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